The days for unqualified US support for Israel are rapidly coming to an end. I say this with full knowledge that the recent US veto in the United Nations might seemingly contradict this premise. But most informed sources within Israel have been dreading this inevitable fall from grace for years. Without unqualified US support, Israel could not and will not survive in its present state.
To the casual observer, one could be forgiven for missing the signs. Viewpoint commissioned the largest study on the Palestinian/Israeli attitudes ever conducted and the results were revealing. Despite massive PR campaigns from hired agencies and millions of dollars spent by the Israeli lobby, the US population has actually seen through the fog and believes that mainstream media is biased in favor of Israel. Most people feel that Israelis and Palestinians are equally to blame for the ongoing violence in the region. This parity is a dramatic shift in perception. This shift is not by accident. It actually serves a latent US desire to switch horses in the region.
Israel has illegally Occupied the West Bank and Gaza since 1967. Only now is the word, “Occupation” routinely used. In fact, in 1990 I worked for a company distributing a video called “Israel’s Shattered Dreams” and the New York PR agency hired to promote the video refused to use the word “Occupation” in the press release. Language is an important component in altering the way people think.
Israeli brutality is required to maintain Occupation and this has led Israel to spasmodically flail away in the political waters. Instead of treading, it is obvious that Israel is sinking. This is not to say that Israel will no longer exist. But the days of defining itself in ultra-nationalistic, racist ways are drawing to a close. The days of maintaining the fiction of defining itself as a “Jewish” AND a “democratic” state are drawing to a close. In fact, one Israeli general has called for a dictatorship to maintain demographic “balance”. He was clearly stating that Israel could be a Jewish state OR a democracy…but not both. By the year 2020, the Palestinian population inside pre-1967 borders could easily exceed that of the Jewish population. This is one reason for Israel’s recent escalation of brutality as it hopes to change the demographic character with its own brand of ethnic cleansing.
But these dynamics are not new to informed Israelis. The new reality is that Israel has become a liability to US interests in the region; namely the steady and stable flow of oil. Oil regimes in the region do not require the enthusiastic support of its people. They only needed their acquiescence. With satellite television and the Internet bringing daily information about how many Palestinians are injured, the entire Arab (and Muslim) world is increasingly sympathetic and making their leadership anxious. The increasing call for action is shaking the stability of these oil regimes. This hasn’t just scared rich oil sheiks. Israel shares that fear.
Israel is not afraid militarily. It knows that the US wants stable oil regimes as a strategic imperative. If Israel ceases to serve these strategic interests, or as in the present case, actually interferes with this strategic interest, the US will throw her over.
The monarchies in the region are in mortal fear that they may lose their seats at the table. They survived losing wars but cannot survive continued humiliation in the face of protracted unqualified US support for Israel’s illegal occupation. The US is about to shift from its historic, unilateral support for Israel. It is impossible for the oil regime leaders to ignore the new dynamic in the region. Even though they are dictators and monarchies, they still need a minimum of support from the streets or else their fate will be similar to that of the once powerful Shah of Iran. Revolution is not conducive to a steady and stable flow of oil to the US.
As one Israeli commentator told me, “We know that today the US supports Israel but tomorrow may easily shift to supporting “the Arabs.” The shift is happening before our eyes. This is why Israel is so scared.